Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4546
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4546 · MDW → TPA
departs 1:25 PM CT · arrives 5:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 53%
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
43%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
43%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 1.00 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.