WN 4555 · LAS → DCA

departs 9:26 AM PT · arrives 4:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4555 · LAS → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?