Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4619
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4619 · STL → TPA
departs 7:10 PM CT · arrives 10:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 43%
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
7pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.