Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4619
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4619 · STL → TPA
departs 8:15 PM CT · arrives 11:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,267 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,267 ft Visibility 3.33333 mi Precip 0.32 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.