Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4641
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4641 · HOU → OKC
departs 9:30 PM CT · arrives 11:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 54%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
9pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
OKC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.37 in
OKC (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.60 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.