Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4641
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4641 · HOU → OKC
departs 10:45 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±6 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
10pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 1.5 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
OKC (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 1.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.