Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4643
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4643 · MDW → MSP
departs 4:30 PM CT · arrives 6:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 41%
Fri 10/2 23%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
4pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.94 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.