Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4651
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4651 · MCI → PHX
departs 10:05 AM CT · arrives 10:50 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 15%
Fri 10/2 13%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±4 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip 0.66 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.