Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4651
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4651 · MCI → PHX
departs 10:40 AM CT · arrives 11:25 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 11%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.67 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.