Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4684
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4684 · STL → LGA
departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 11:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 41%
Fri 10/2 40%
Sat 10/3 21%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from STL are often late
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.