Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4684 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4684 · STL → LGA

departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 11:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±8 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.62 in

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4684 · STL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?