Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4739
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4739 · DEN → TPA
departs 4:05 PM MT · arrives 9:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 37%
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3 33%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±0 pts
−16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
34%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.