Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4739
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4739 · DEN → TPA
departs 4:50 PM MT · arrives 10:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 29%
Sat 10/3 33%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±6 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.