Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4779
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4779 · AUS → SFO
departs 5:05 PM CT · arrives 6:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 51%
Fri 10/2 38%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±7 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at AUS that day
↑
This flight has been late 45% of the time recently
↑
5pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SFO that day
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.