Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4779
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4779 · AUS → SFO
departs 4:35 PM CT · arrives 6:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 38%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
4pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SFO that day
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.94 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.