Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4781 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 4781 · MSP → MDW

departs 10:48 AM CT · arrives 11:50 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MDW that day

↑ Other factors

↑ 10am departures from MSP are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4781 · MSP → MDW

Odds over time