Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4861
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4861 · LGA → HOU
departs 1:25 PM ET · arrives 4:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 33%
Fri 10/2 35%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.