Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4861
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4861 · LGA → HOU
departs 1:40 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 39%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.