Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4868 · ONT → HOU
departs 1:05 PM PT · arrives 6:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 15%
Fri 10/2 16%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at HOU that day
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.