Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4868 · ONT → HOU
departs 9:40 AM PT · arrives 2:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.