Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4898
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4898 · MCO → PVD
departs 5:55 PM ET · arrives 9:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 33%
Fri 10/2 26%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
PVD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.