Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4898
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4898 · MCO → PVD
departs 5:55 PM ET · arrives 9:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 9/30 28%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 26%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
PVD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.