Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4898
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 4898 · MCO → PVD
departs 5:55 PM ET · arrives 9:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 28%
Thu 10/1 33%
Fri 10/2 26%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PVD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.