Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4906
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4906 · PHX → SNA
departs 6:00 PM MT · arrives 7:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 37%
Fri 10/2 39%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.