Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4906
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4906 · PHX → SNA
departs 6:00 PM MT · arrives 7:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 41%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SNA that day
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.