Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4927
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 4927 · OAK → SNA
departs 9:05 AM PT · arrives 10:35 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 16%
Fri 10/2 9%
Sat 10/3 5%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OAK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
9am departures from OAK are usually not late
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.