Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4931 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

WN 4931 · MDW → DCA

departs 8:30 PM CT · arrives 10:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 8pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.94 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4931 · MDW → DCA

Odds over time