Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 534 LANDED 3:09 PM PT, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 534 · AUS → SAN

took off 2:36 PM CT · landed 3:09 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

SAN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 534 · AUS → SAN

Odds over time