Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3430 LANDED 7:02 AM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 3430 · CMH → IAD

took off 6:10 AM ET · landed 7:02 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3430 · CMH → IAD

Odds over time