Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
YX 3474 · BGR → EWR
departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 8:43 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 10%
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BGR is prone to delays
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BGR (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.