Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3494 LANDED 11:06 AM ET, ON TIME · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

YX 3494 · PWM → IAD

took off 9:53 AM ET · landed 11:06 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at PWM that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ 10am departures from PWM are usually not late

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.04 in

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3494 · PWM → IAD

Odds over time