Schedule: FAA flight plans.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3580 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

YX 3580 · EWR → GRR

took off 7:45 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 7:30 PM ET → 9:50 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GRR?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GRR (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3580 · EWR → GRR

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRR?