Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3609 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 3609 · EWR → SDF

departs 9:41 PM ET · arrives 11:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3609 · EWR → SDF

Odds over time