YX 3611 · XNA → EWR

took off 3:02 PM CT · landed 6:32 PM ET (scheduled 2:57 PM CT → 7:11 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to EWR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ XNA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

XNA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling10,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3611 · XNA → EWR

Odds over time

How late did it get to EWR?