Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3654
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
YX 3654 · ORF → EWR
departs 5:44 PM ET · arrives 7:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 35%
Fri 10/2 68%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.