YX 4367 · DCA → BNA

departs 10:12 PM ET · arrives 11:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ DCA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4367 · DCA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?