YX 4391 · MSN → BOS

took off 8:38 AM CT · landed 11:39 AM ET (scheduled 8:21 AM CT → 12:07 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BOS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ Cloud base down to 367 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MSN that day

↑ BOS is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling340 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.31 in

BOS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4391 · MSN → BOS

Odds over time

How late did it get to BOS?