YX 4391 · MSN → BOS

departs 8:40 AM CT · arrives 12:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at MSN that day

↑ BOS is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.60 in

BOS (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4391 · MSN → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?