Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4406 LANDED 6:35 AM ET, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

YX 4406 · PWM → PHL

took off 5:31 AM ET · landed 6:35 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from PWM are usually not late

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.04 in

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4406 · PWM → PHL

Odds over time