Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4425
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
YX 4425 · ORD → MSP
departs 3:43 PM CT · arrives 5:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 22%
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.