YX 4426 · OKC → LGA

departs 4:34 PM CT · arrives 9:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
25%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 2.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OKC that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ OKC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

OKC (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.62 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4426 · OKC → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?