Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4428 LANDED 1:14 PM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

YX 4428 · MYR → DCA

took off 12:13 PM ET · landed 1:14 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

MYR (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4428 · MYR → DCA

Odds over time