Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4500 LANDED 4:19 PM ET, ~20 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 4500 · YHZ → LGA

took off 3:38 PM ADT · landed 4:19 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YHZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4500 · YHZ → LGA

Odds over time