Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
YX 4511 · ORD → CHA
departs 9:02 PM CT · arrives 11:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 22%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at CHA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CHA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at CHA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to CHA?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CHA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
CHA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.