YX 4519 · ORD → ORF

departs 8:38 PM CT · arrives 12:07 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

ORF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4519 · ORD → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?