Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4538 LANDED 3:25 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

YX 4538 · LGA → PIT

took off 2:32 PM ET · landed 3:25 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 2pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4538 · LGA → PIT

Odds over time