Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4543
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
YX 4543 · ACK → DCA
departs 10:39 AM ET · arrives 12:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 13%
Fri 10/2 13%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ACK (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.03 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.