Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4585 LANDED 9:36 AM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 4585 · XNA → LGA

took off 6:04 AM CT · landed 9:36 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ XNA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

XNA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling10,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4585 · XNA → LGA

Odds over time