Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4586 LANDED 9:45 AM ET, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 4586 · JFK → DCA

took off 8:58 AM ET · landed 9:45 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 9am departures from JFK are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4586 · JFK → DCA

Odds over time