Schedule: FAA flight plans.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4611 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

YX 4611 · JFK → PIT

took off 8:17 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 8:30 PM ET → 10:27 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PIT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4611 · JFK → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?